Repeat perpetrators found to drive significant violence against women and girls, national assessment reveals

Published by the National Centre for Violence Against Women and Girls and Public Protection (NCVPP), the first national Strategic Threat Risk Assessment (STRA) provides the most comprehensive picture to date of the threats facing women and girls across England and Wales. 

The assessment finds that domestic abuse remains the most significant threat, accounting for 65% of all VAWG-related offences. And more than half of recorded rape and serious sexual assault offences are committed by a current or former partner, highlighting the devastating impact of abuse within intimate relationships. 

It also highlights the growing nature of repeat abuse, with the most common age groups identified as 15-19 and 30-49. Among 15-19-year-olds, harmful behaviour can be linked to factors such as online influences, peer dynamics and unmet needs associated with vulnerability factors including prior experiences of abuse. The older age group is more consistent with patterns of repeat domestic abuse.  
These findings underline the importance of identifying patterns of harmful behaviour and intervening earlier to prevent future harm. 

The NCVPP is already working with forces and partners across England and Wales to develop nationally scalable approaches that strengthen the response to high-harm and repeat perpetrators. This includes exploring and testing potential models for a single national approach to identify the most dangerous offenders, enhancing use of protective measures and disclosure schemes, supporting innovation through programmes such as Soteria and Project Vigilant, and working with partners to tackle technology-enabled abuse and reduce the impact of image-based offending. 

The STRA also highlights that technology is rapidly reshaping the threat landscape. Online abuse, sexual extortion, image-based abuse, and emerging AI-enabled harms are increasingly intertwined with offending in the physical world, creating new challenges for policing, safeguarding agencies, and technology providers.  

One of the most significant findings is the scale of harmful behaviour occurring between children, often influenced by online environments, peer norms and harmful content. While offences committed by children can cause significant harm and will be taken seriously, the assessment highlights the importance of recognising that some child perpetrators may also have experienced vulnerability, trauma or abuse themselves. Police and partner responses should therefore be proportionate, safeguarding-led and focused on both accountability and early intervention to reduce future harm. 

The publication of the STRA marks an important milestone in the national response to violence against women and girls. Alongside the establishment of the NCVPP, it provides a shared understanding of the threats facing women and girls and will help policing and partners target activity where it can have the greatest impact. 

Director of the NCVPP, DAC Helen Millichap, said: 
"This assessment gives us the clearest understanding we have ever had of the threats facing women and girls and where we must focus our efforts. 
"Domestic abuse remains the most significant threat, but the assessment also shows how offending continues to evolve through technology, exploitation and the growing risks facing children and young people. It also highlights the significant role repeat perpetrators play in driving harm, reinforcing the need to identify risk earlier and intervene before more victims are affected. 
"For the first time, we have a national evidence base across all VAWG and public protection offences that helps us understand these threats consistently, identify those causing the greatest harm and support action that can be scaled across England and Wales." 

The assessment clearly highlights the importance of coordinated action across government, education, health, social care, community organisations and the technology sector, alongside continued efforts to strengthen prevention and early intervention. With VAWG and Public Protection threats comprising 1.4m offences, and the expectation that crime will continue to rise, further emphasises the scale and more crucially, the focus required. 

DAC Millichap added: 
"Policing has a vital role to play, but lasting change requires a genuine whole-system response, with every organisation that has the ability to prevent harm playing its part. 
"The reality is that many violence against women and girls' offences may never be reported to police. We want that to change, and we know that confidence in how victims will be treated, whether they will be believed and whether they will be protected can influence whether someone comes forward. 
"What we can do is continue the work to improve. The creation of the NCVPP, the development of the first national strategic threat risk assessment and the growing focus on identifying and managing the perpetrators causing the greatest harm are all examples of tangible progress. 
"Every victim matters. Every report matters. And every opportunity we take to prevent harm before it occurs matters. That is what this assessment is designed to help us achieve.” 

The release of the STRA has been widely welcomed by the specialist sector. 

Farah Nazeer, Chief Executive of Women’s Aid, said:  
“The first Strategic Threat Risk Assessment helps us begin to form a more accurate national picture of the sheer scale of the violence women and girls experience in England and Wales today. I am devastated, yet not surprised, to see that domestic abuse is the most significant and enduring threat – it is a crime where harm often escalates, sometimes fatally, and where the likelihood of reoffending is extremely high. The assessment highlights the need for a whole-system approach – something that we have also been calling for – and is necessary to ensure women and children are safe.” 

Sophie Mortimer, Head of Support Services at SWGfL and Lead of the Revenge Porn Helpline said:  
"This assessment highlights how online harms are increasingly intertwined with offline violence against women and girls. That's why the new reporting function between the Revenge Porn Helpline and the police is so important, helping to remove barriers to reporting while ensuring specialist support remains at the centre of the process. This is exactly the kind of collaborative approach needed to tackle abuse and hold perpetrators accountable." 

Andrea Simon, Victims’ Commissioner for London said:  
“I welcome the publication of the Strategic Threat Risk Assessment by the NCVPP. The assessment rightly calls on policing to disrupt and manage repeat offenders, who account for almost a quarter of VAWG offences, and that expectation must be matched by capacity. Robust risk assessment and better information sharing between agencies is essential.” 

Anna Edmundson, Executive Director of Policy & Social Change at the NSPCC, said: 
“The assessment rightly recognises the challenge for forces responding to children who exhibit harmful sexual behaviour. Many who display these behaviours have themselves experienced some form of abuse, and it is vital that all young people are safeguarded and have access to the specialist support they need.” 

Katie Kempen, Chief Executive at Victim Support, said: 
“This stark but crucial assessment rightly recognises domestic abuse and violence against women and girls as urgent national priorities. The scale of this challenge cannot be tackled by policing alone. Meaningful, lasting change for all victim-survivors demands a coordinated multi-agency response across the criminal justice system, backed by sustained investment to hold perpetrators to account, strengthen offender management, and give children and young people the education and support they deserve.” 

ENDS